🔮 A2 Vacancy Rates: The Real Numbers

📊 What you should know: Ann Arbor officials are using outdated 2022 vacancy data in the April 2025 Draft Comprehensive Plan when newer 2023-2025 figures tell a completely different story. This selective data use exaggerates scarcity, downplays supply, and creates the false impression of an extreme total housing shortage to justify pro-displacement policies across the entire city.

Real Ann Arbor Vacancy Rates: 2022 to Current (May 2, 2025)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS 2023), SEMCOG (July 2024), and CoStar (May 2025)

The Draft Comprehensive Plan states on page 48: "Current vacancy rates are extremely low, creating an unhealthy balance between supply and demand: owner vacancy is 1.1% and renter vacancy is 3.1%."

May 2025 CoStar data show a market-rate rental vacancy of 6.9%, a figure that falls within the 5-8% range often considered indicative of a "healthy" housing market, a definition acknowledged within the Draft Comprehensive Plan itself.

The selective use of older data misrepresents current housing availability, directly misinforms residents, creates a biased public engagement process, and undermines public trust. The Draft Comprehensive Plan must be updated to incorporate the latest available data to ensure an accurate foundation for future planning and development strategies.

City of Ann Arbor officials and the consultants contracted and already paid to make the plan are:

  • 🍒 Cherry-picking outdated data to justify massive housing targets (30,000-45,000 units) that are 600-900% higher than what SEMCOG projects is actually needed

  • 🚮 Ignoring current market realities where Ann Arbor's population is actually dipping by ~1.5%

  • ⚠️ Violating professional ethics standards that require using "timely, accurate, and complete information"

  • 🙀 Creating a false crisis narrative when recent development has actually achieved more balanced market conditions

⬇️ Listen to the Full Story and read about the Importance of Current Data below:

The Importance of Current Data

Effective urban planning relies on accurate and timely data. The City of Ann Arbor's Draft Comprehensive Plan, a critical document guiding future development, currently utilizes 2022 U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) data for its housing vacancy analysis.¹ More recent data from CoStar, the 2023 ACS, and 2024 SEMCOG estimates present a substantially different view of Ann Arbor's housing market, one with notably higher vacancy rates. Utilizing the most current data is crucial for sound planning decisions and aligning with professional best practices.

Professional Planning Standards:

The American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP) establishes ethical and professional standards for the planning profession. Key tenets relevant to this analysis include:

  • Accuracy of Information: The AICP Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct mandates that planners "shall provide timely, adequate, clear, and accurate information on planning issues to all affected persons and to governmental decision makers."³

  • Use of Reliable Data: The AICP's Sustaining Places: Best Practices for Comprehensive Plans (PAS Report 578) emphasizes that comprehensive plans must "incorporate recent and reliable data," "coordinate local and regional population and economic projections," and "integrate the most current and best available data."⁴

The City of Ann Arbor subscribes to CoStar Real Estate Information, a service providing real-time market data, with payments recorded in the City's OpenBook records. This suggests an awareness and valuation of current data, yet this up-to-date information has not been incorporated into the Draft Comprehensive Plan's vacancy analysis.

The Real Data and Current Market Conditions the City Refuses to Show Residents:

Current Vacancy Metrics (City of Ann Arbor):
Note: ACS data has margins of error. 0.0% homeowner vacancy in 2023 is within rounding bounds.
Source Year Rental Vacancy % Homeowner Vacancy % Overall Vacancy % Notes
CoStar (Market Rate) May 2, 2025 6.9 n/a n/a Market-rate units only¹
CoStar (Student Housing) May 2, 2025 5.3 n/a n/a Purpose-built student beds¹
ACS 1-Year 2023 4.9 ± 1.32 0.0 ± 0.32* 8.32 Latest Census estimates²
ACS 1-Year 2022 3.13 1.13 7.13 Quoted in Draft Plan⁹
ACS 1-Year 2021 3.24 2.34 6.64 Pandemic period⁴
ACS 1-Year 2019 2.55 0.95 10.25 Pre-pandemic baseline⁵
ACS 5-Year (2019-23) Midpoint 2021 3.46 0.86 7.16 Smoothed estimate⁶
ACS 5-Year (2018-22) Midpoint 2020 3.27 1.07 6.67 -
SEMCOG Estimate Jul 2024 - - 4.68 Combined owner & renter⁸

Why This Matters:

The discrepancies between the data used in the Draft Comprehensive Plan and more current figures have several important implications:

  • Data Currency and Accuracy: The reliance on 2022 ACS data when more recent 2023 ACS, 2024 SEMCOG, and May 2025 CoStar data are available is inconsistent with professional planning best practices that call for the most current information. This is particularly noteworthy given the City's access to real-time CoStar data.

  • Contradictory Standards: The Draft Comprehensive Plan itself, on page 48, states, "For a healthy housing market, vacancy rates are typically between 5-8%." The current CoStar market rate rental vacancy of 6.9% falls squarely within this "healthy" range, a fact not acknowledged due to the use of older data.

  • Inconsistent Data Selection Methodology: There appears to be a bias in data selection. For rental properties, the Draft Plan uses the lower 2022 ACS rate (3.1%) instead of the higher 2023 ACS rate (4.9%) or the even more current CoStar (6.9%) and SEMCOG (4.6%) figures. Conversely, for homeowner vacancies, the Plan used the 2022 ACS rate of 1.1%, rather than the lower 2023 ACS rate of 0.7% which would have further emphasized scarcity if that were the consistent narrative. This selective approach can skew perceptions of housing availability.

  • Missing Context: The omission of overall vacant housing unit data (e.g., 8.3% in 2023 according to ACS 1-Year Estimates) removes important context. These units are vacant for various reasons, including seasonal use, renovation, or being between tenants/owners, and contribute to the total available housing stock.

  • Trend Analysis: Presenting data from a single year (2022) obscures the dynamic nature of the housing market. An analysis of trends from 2019-2025 (using ACS, SEMCOG, and CoStar) would show an upward trajectory in rental vacancies since 2022, suggesting the market is responding to new supply and potentially approaching equilibrium.

  • ⭐ The upward rental trend is clear: 2.5% (2019) → 3.1% (2022) → 4.9% (2023) → 6.9% (2025)

Implications and Risks of Using Outdated Data

Misrepresenting vacancy data by relying on outdated figures carries significant risks:

  • Misinforming the Public: Residents are misled about actual housing conditions, fostering an inaccurate perception of extreme scarcity.

  • Flawed Policy Decisions: Policies based on an incorrect understanding of market dynamics, such as those related to large-scale rezoning and development incentives, may lead to economic and environmental consequences if the market is already self-correcting.

  • Erosion of Public Trust: The selective use of data can undermine public trust in city planning processes and the transparency of decision-making.

The following tables present a consolidated view of housing vacancy data (2019 to May 2, 2025) from various sources, comparing them to the figures used in the Draft Comprehensive Plan:

Rental Property Vacancy Rates:
Data as of May 2nd, 2025
Source Date Rental Vacancy Rate (%) Used in Draft Plan?
CoStar Market Rate Units May 2, 2025 6.90% ❌ Omitted
CoStar Student Housing May 2, 2025 5.30% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2023 4.90% ❌ Omitted
SEMCOG Estimate (Overall) July 2024 4.60% ❌ Omitted
ACS 5-Year Estimates 2019-2023 3.40% ❌ Omitted
ACS 5-Year Estimates 2018-2022 3.20% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2022 3.10% ✅ Used in Plan
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2021 3.20% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2019 2.50% ❌ Omitted
Homeowner Property Vacancy Rates:
Data as of May 2nd, 2025
Source Date Homeowner Vacancy Rate (%) Used in Draft Plan?
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2023 0.70% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2022 1.10% ✅ Used in Plan
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2021 2.30% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2019 0.90% ❌ Omitted
ACS 5-Year Estimates 2019-2023 0.80% ❌ Omitted
ACS 5-Year Estimates 2018-2022 1.00% ❌ Omitted
Overall Vacant Housing Units Data (All Reasons for Vacancy):
The Draft Comprehensive Plan does not include overall vacant housing unit data, which provides broader context on housing availability.
Notes: SEMCOG's 4.6% overall vacancy rate for July 2024 represents combined rental and homeowner units and is a benchmark for overall residential vacancy. CoStar's 6.9% is specific to market-rate rental units. Data as of May 2nd, 2025
Source Date Overall Vacant Housing Units (%) Used in Draft Plan?
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2023 8.30% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2022 7.10% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2021 6.60% ❌ Omitted
ACS 1-Year Estimates 2019 10.20% ❌ Omitted
ACS 5-Year Estimates 2019-2023 7.10% ❌ Omitted
ACS 5-Year Estimates 2018-2022 6.60% ❌ Omitted
SEMCOG Estimate July 2024 4.60% ❌ Omitted
CoStar (Market Rate Units) May 2, 2025 6.90% ❌ Omitted

Year-Over-Year Data in This Context:

It's important to note that not all sources provide a continuous year-over-year series for single calendar years:

  • ACS 1-Year Estimates: Provide data for individual years (2020 ACS D4 1-year data was not officially published).

  • ACS 5-Year Estimates: Provide data for overlapping 5-year periods, offering a smoothed trend rather than individual year data.

  • SEMCOG: Provides data for specific benchmark years (Census years) and more recent estimates.

  • CoStar: Provides a snapshot of the market at a recent point in time. (May 2, 2025)

The Bottom Line:

⭐ Ann Arbor officials are ignoring their own current data to maintain a false narrative about housing scarcity. The market has clearly adjusted toward balance with healthy vacancy rates now within the city's own target range of 5-8%. Continuing to rely on outdated 2022 figures misleads the public and violates planning ethics standards.

Additional Context:

Note: The City of Ann Arbor pays for CoStar and has access to the same real-time vacancy data: (Source: OpenBook)

Breakdown of Vacant Units in Ann Arbor (ACS 2023)
Data as of May 2nd, 2025
Reason Units
For rent 1,300
Rented, not occupied 280
For sale only 190
Sold, not occupied 160
For seasonal/recreational use 800
Other vacant 1,500